Tech Analyst Paul Meeks Has A Warning for Apple in the Face of Its Biggest Launch Ever

Apple's foldable iPhone launches near $2,000 as a memory oligopoly forces rising costs and shrinking gross margins, analyst Paul Meeks warns.

Tim Cook called memory price surges a '100-year flood,' warning even higher costs loom in September with gross margin guidance at 47-48%.

Micron shares surged 640% in one year while Apple absorbs the cost, and Meeks sees no memory pricing relief for years.

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Just before Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) takes the stage for what Bloomberg's Mark Gurman calls "the most exciting iPhone launch in a decade", others are less convinced. Veteran tech analyst Paul Meeks of Freedom Capital Markets used a CNBC appearance to push back on the celebration. His message: the memory oligopoly is quietly winning this cycle, and Apple's gross margins will pay for it.

Meeks warned viewers not to get swept up in the hype around the debut of the first foldable iPhone, codenamed V68, expected to start near $2,000 and unveiled by incoming CEO John Ternus. "I'm afraid...that you might be overselling it," he said, flagging Apple's lagging AI position as a structural concern.

Meeks identified the mechanism squeezing Apple: an entrenched supplier oligopoly. He called out the "big three oligopolies in memory," Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung, controling roughly 90% of market share, adding

"A company with the heft of an Apple has to pay more. Cost of goods sold goes up, gross margins go down. And it's a real problem."

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Former CEO Tim Cook confirmed the pressure on Apple's Q3 FY26 call. He described the environment as "a 100-year flood on the memory pricing with exponential increases in memory prices" and said Apple "reluctantly raised prices." CFO Kevan Parekh added that "more than 100% of that can be explained by the memory cost change" when explaining sequential margin compression.

The warning lands against a genuinely powerful backdrop. Apple posted June-quarter revenue of $109.42 billion, up 16.4% YoY, with EPS of $2.02 beating consensus by 6.80%, the ninth straight upside surprise. iPhone revenue reached $54.25 billion and Services hit $30.74 billion. The stock trades at $315.49, up 34.62% over one year, with a market cap of $4.61 trillion and a trailing P/E near 37.

But Cook flagged that "for September, we expect to pay even higher memory costs." He further warned supply constraints will affect iPhone, Mac, and iPad. September-quarter gross margin guidance sits at between 47% and 48%, with roughly a point of that from tariff refunds.

Meeks's data point is Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), the U.S. memory maker riding the same wave that is pinching Apple. Micron shares trade at $1,0001, up 640.4% over one year and 250.8% year to date. Fiscal Q3 revenue reached $41.46 billion, up 345.7% YoY, with gross margin of 84.6%. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said record results "reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era."

Meeks expects the squeeze to persist, forecasting no relief in memory pricing for years. He points capital toward AI data-center names including CoreWeave, Applied Digital, and NVIDIA (we profiled seven suppliers powering that same buildout, from power to cooling, in a free AI infrastructure report). Investors watching today's launch should keep an eye on the stock, but also on Apple's next margin commentary.

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