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Markets see a near 50-50 chance the European Central Bank will hike again in October

Sep 10, 2026 4:58 PM · MarketWatch

Financial markets are now virtually evenly divided on whether the European Central Bank will again lift interest rates next month after a statement issued Thursday that was perceived as being hawkish.

The ECB’s decision on Thursday to lift rates by a quarter point to 2.5% was expected. But now, according to LSEG data, there’s a 49% chance of a hike as soon as Oct. 29 — and if not then, an 89% chance of one by Dec. 17, with a 36% chance the deposit rate will be 3% heading into Christmas.

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Original source: MarketWatch