Stocks Fall as Crude Prices Soar and Bond Yields Climb

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) closed down -0.48% on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.77%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.29%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) fell -0.46%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) fell -0.30%.

Stock indexes retreated on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling to a 5-week low. The broader market was under pressure for a second day amid mounting inflation risks. WTI crude oil prices surged more than +3% today to a 3.25-month high amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, heightening concerns about energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The surge in energy prices is boosting inflation expectations and pushing bond yields higher. The 10-year T-note yield rose to 4.85% on Wednesday, the highest in 2.75 years. The higher bond yields weighed on stocks.

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On the positive side, chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks gained on Wednesday. Energy producers also rose on stronger crude oil prices.

The escalating trade war between the US and Canada is also weighing on market sentiment. On Tuesday, Canada imposed tariffs of 15% to 50% on hundreds of US goods in retaliation for the US action last month to impose 50% tariffs on $20 billion of imports from Canada. The US responded by moving to block imports of some Canadian products and slapping new tariffs on others, as well as seeking to bar Canadian companies from selling to US government contractors.

US MBA mortgage applications fell -2.7% in the week ended September 4, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -0.2% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -6.2%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose +6 bp to a 14-month high of 6.85% from 6.79% in the prior week.

Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) surged more than +3% on Wednesday to a 3.25-month high due to the latest escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. The US destroyed five Iranian tankers carrying crude in response to two attempts by Iran to hit US Navy ships with ballistic missiles. Iran responded by firing missiles at a US air base in Jordan and warning ships in the Persian Gulf that they would be attacked. Iran also said on Wednesday that it is ready for a more intense war and will escalate counterstrikes if the US continues attacking its territory and infrastructure.

The markets are discounting a 61% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16.

Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 5-week low and closed down -1.58%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.28%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.19%.

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) closed down by -7.5 ticks on Wednesday. The 10-year T-note yield rose +4.5 bp to 4.833%. T-notes fell to a 20-month nearest-futures low on Wednesday, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2.75-year high of 4.853%. T-notes are under pressure from higher crude oil prices, which are boosting inflation expectations, as WTI crude oil rose more than +3% on Wednesday to a 3.25-month high. T-notes added to their losses on Wednesday after the Treasury announced that it will buy back up to $6 billion in longer-dated US Treasuries, below expectations of at least $10 billion.

T-notes recovered from their worst level on Wednesday amid strong demand for the Treasury's $39 billion auction of 10-year T-notes. The auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.71, well above the 10-auction average of 2.49.

European government bond yields moved higher on Wednesday. The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a new 15-year high of 3.444% and finished up +7.8 bp on that high. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +8.8 bp to 5.261%.

French July manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.4% m/m increase.

Markets are discounting a 100% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at Thursday's policy meeting.

Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks moved higher on Wednesday, limiting losses in the overall market. Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +4%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed up more than +3%. Also, Micron Technology (MU) closed up more than +2%, and ARM Holdings (ARM), Western Digital (WDC), SanDisk (SNDK), Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up more than +1%.

Energy producers and service providers rallied on Wednesday after WTI crude oil rose more than +3% to a 3.25-month high. APA Corp (APA) and ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) closed up more than +2%. Also, Chevron (CVX), Devon Energy (DVN), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +1%.

ServiceTitan (TTAN) closed down more than -29% after reporting a Q2 EPS loss of -26 cents, a bigger loss than the consensus of -25 cents.

Casy's General Stores (CASY) closed down more than -14% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting a Q1 gross margin of 21.8%, below the consensus of 22.3%.

Chewy (CHWY) closed down more than -10% after forecasting a sequential decline in Q3 gross margin, due to a timing shift as certain rebate benefits shifted from the second half of the year into Q2.

Smithfield Foods (SFD) closed down more than -6% after cutting its Q3 earnings outlook, citing "continued compression in the industry fresh pork market spread and lower hog prices."

Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) closed down more than -5% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $10.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) closed down more than -3% after losing an EU court fight over its takeover of Sweden's Etraveli Group, when a judge said regulators were right to conclude that the planned buyout threatened fair competition.

Chime Financial (CHYM) closed up more than +7% after boosting its full-year revenue forecast to $2.76 billion to $2.77 billion from a previous forecast of $2.73 billion to $2.75 billion, stronger than the consensus of $2.74 billion.

Meta Platforms (META) closed up more than +6% after analysts reported positive reviews of the company's debut of Muse, an AI assistant.

HP Inc (HPQ) closed up more than +3% after announcing a pact with Red Hat on an AI platform.

Sysco (SYY) closed up more than +2% after raising its mid-term financial targets for fiscal years 2028 and 2029 to annualized net sales growth of 4% to 7%, up from a previous view of 4% to 6%.

Adobe Inc (ADBE), Copart Inc (CPRT), Macy's Inc (M), Oracle Corp (ORCL).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com