Alex Thorn Says Bitcoin’s Low Is In. What Happened the Last Four Times?

Alex Thorn says Bitcoin closing above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks historically confirms the bear market low is in.

Three of four prior 50-week reclaims preceded major bull runs, but 2019 gave back roughly half its advance after the same signal fired.

The Sept 27 weekly close is the real test. A hold above $78,786 confirms the trend, while a close below makes Sept 20 a one-week fluke.

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Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy, shared insights on X after the weekly close on September 20. He noted that reclaiming the 50-week moving average usually signals that the bear market low has been reached. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) closed that week at $81,159, surpassing the moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. As of September 21, 2026, it is trading at $84,702, reflecting a 5.3% increase in just 24 hours but down about 3% year-to-date.

Thorn's statement is more specific than it may seem. He isn't predicting the Bitcoin price will rise from here; instead, he believes the $57,718 low from July 1 is unlikely to be broken. Historically, after four of the last five bear markets, the first weekly close above this moving average followed a low that held steady. So what happened in those four cases, and what could it mean for Bitcoin's price today?

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The 50-week moving average is calculated based on the last 50 weekly closing prices, updated weekly. Since each week replaces only one of the 50 prices, this average moves slowly, which is why traders often use it to identify long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations. Bitcoin fell below this average in November 2025, shortly after hitting its record price of $126,198, and stayed below it for 45 weeks before hitting a low of $57,718, which was 54% under its all-time high.

A weekly close is significant because it shows buyers held the price above the moving average for an entire week, including during the typically volatile weekend trading. On September 20, Thorn noted that the moving average was around $78,786, and Bitcoin closed 3% above that.

Thorn also mentioned the speed of the price recovery. Bitcoin climbed 29% in just 35 days leading up to September 21, indicating a strong move rather than a slow climb. He compared this cycle to the bear markets of 2015 and 2018, implying similarities in how it bottomed out, which supports his reasoning.

October 2015. After the 2014 bear market, Bitcoin closed above its 50-week average around $250, never returning to its $160 low. It soared to about $20,000 by December 2017.

May 2019. Bitcoin reclaimed the average near $5,500 after the 2018 crash. Its low of $3,200 from December 2018 held through the following market fluctuations, including the March 2020 downturn to around $3,850.

May 2020. Bitcoin regained the average two months after the March crash and surged to $69,000 by November 2021.

March 2023. Bitcoin reclaimed the average near $28,000 after the 2022 bear market, staying above it for over two years and reaching $126,198 in October 2025.

The notable exception is from late 2021 to 2022, when Bitcoin crossed above the 50-week average twice but subsequently made lower lows. This decline was driven by major events, including the collapses of the Luna stablecoin, the Three Arrows hedge fund, and the FTX exchange. According to Bitget's Ryan Lee, these were the only two instances of Bitcoin's 13 crossings resulting in lower lows.

Thorn's findings confirm a narrow conclusion: in four out of five bear markets, the first weekly close above the 50-week moving average occurred after a low that held. However, this doesn't guarantee a rally. In 2019, prices tumbled back down within six months, while the other three cases took between seven and 16 months to set new highs.

Currently, Bitcoin is at $84,702, still 11% below its January high of $94,820 and 33% below the record $126,198 from October 2025. This puts Bitcoin in the middle of its own range rather than at a new high. This also comes at the end of a quarter after three straight losses, with the price now 45% above the June 30 close of $58,524.

The dynamics of buyer behavior have also changed. Unlike past rallies, which had no spot Bitcoin ETFs or corporate treasury buyers behind them, today's market has a different buyer base—larger but potentially slower-moving. That argues for a held low and for a slower climb.

The one weekly close suggests the low is established, but it doesn't guarantee a rally. Thorn's history shows he has identified four successful holds during five bear markets—well-known cases for Bitcoin holders. So, if you take the signal for what it claims, you can consider $57,718 as a solid floor. The one exception occurred in a bear market influenced by bankruptcies, yet 2026 has not faced similar scenarios like Luna or FTX. This cycle appears more like what we saw in 2015 and 2018, as Thorn indicated.

The downside of taking this signal seriously is that it doesn't say anything about how quickly prices will move. Looking back at 2019, we can see the risk for someone who bought in during the reclaim after a held low. The key test will be the weekly close on September 27. If Bitcoin closes above $78,786 again, it can signal a trend, with the next target being the January high of $94,820. Conversely, if it closes below that, September 20 will join the list of 2022 crossings that triggered false signals.

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