Realty Income Rewarded Patient Investors Over Ten Years but Recent Buyers Face a Steep Decline

Realty Income has handed out monthly dividends for decades and built a global property empire spanning casinos, data centers, and European real estate, yet patient long-term holders still trail the S&P 500 by a stunning margin. Whether the next decade…

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Realty Income (NYSE:O) is a net lease REIT that owns single-tenant buildings where tenants pay most taxes, insurance, and maintenance. Rent and dividends come monthly, earning the nickname “The Monthly Dividend Company”.

A decade ago it was mostly a U.S. retail landlord. Mergers with VEREIT (2021) and Spirit Realty Capital (2024) expanded it to 15,542 properties across eight European countries plus Mexico. Industrial properties made up 65% of Q2 2026 new investment. It owns casino properties including Bellagio and announced a $6 billion hyperscale data center JV in 2026. Occupancy was 98.8%.

The monthly dividend grew from $0.202 in September 2016 to $0.2715 in September 2026, marking the company’s 115th consecutive quarterly dividend increase.

All periods run from September month-end close to October 1, 2026 close, with reinvested dividends unless marked “price only.” S&P 500 figures include reinvested dividends.

Reinvested dividends added $530.73, turning a price loss into a gain. The stock fell from $78.41 in January 2020 to $38.00 intraday in March 2020, a 51.54% drop. Rising rates hurt further: the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 1.52% at end-2021 to 5.29% by September 30, 2026. Shares fell 35.96% from July 2022 to October 2023, then lost another 12.32% in the past month.

The case for Realty Income improves if long-term rates have topped out and weakens if the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5%.

The bull case: The stock yields 5.77% and the company carries an “A” rating from Fitch. Management raised 2026 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO, a REIT cash-earnings measure) guidance to $4.44 to $4.45 per share and investment guidance to $10.0B. Its private capital funds also reduce how often it has to sell new shares to fund deals.

The bear case: AFFO growth is running at about 4%. Tenants without investment-grade credit account for 65.7% of base rent, and the watch list remains in the high 5% range. Treasuries now pay close to the stock’s yield, with no credit risk.

Can the next decade match the last? Possibly, but that means low-to-mid single-digit total returns depending mostly on dividends, still trailing the S&P 500. Falling Treasury yields are the key signal to watch.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Chris Lange is a financial and geopolitical writer with more than a decade of experience covering a myriad of topics. He has published thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St., with past coverage focused heavily on stocks, IPOs, healthcare, defense, global affairs, and technology.

His work has been quoted, or referenced by a number of outlets including Business Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, The Motley Fool, and many other publications. A graduate of Southwestern University, he studied business with a focus on investments and has previous experience in banking and startups.

When not reading or writing the news, he is following his passion for Lacrosse, playing chess, or building solar projects with his dad.

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