Gulf oil export data; Constellation Brands to report - what’s moving markets

Investing.com - Futures linked to the main U.S. stock indices inch higher, after equities advanced to begin the first full trading week of the fourth quarter. Gulf oil exports topped pre-war levels for around half of September despite the threat of attacks on tankers in the region, new data shows. Constellation Brands is due to report its latest quarterly results after the bell, while U.S. trade data for August is set to be released.

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U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Tuesday. By 03:09 ET (07:09 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 170 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had gained 12 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had ticked up by 36 points, or 0.1%.

The main averages on Wall Street rose on Monday. A decline in oil prices helped to marginally soothe some concerns around persistent energy-driven inflation, although expectations that the Federal Reserve will skip an interest rate hike this month before raising borrowing costs in December were little changed.

Meanwhile, a fresh set of services sector activity data showed that the prices paid by these companies in September touched a post-2022 high, keeping inflation worries in play. With the Fed tipped to remain focused on corralling price gains, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in more than two decades, limiting the climb in stocks in the process.

Investors were also assessing fears that the U.S. bond-market woes may be spreading globally, particularly in France. However, analysts at Deutsche Bank said that there were "initial signs that the pressure on France was stabilizing, with a clear outperformance in French debt."

2. Gulf oil exports topped pre-war levels for half of September, data shows

Gulf oil exporters managed to surpass pre-war levels for roughly half of September, according to shipping data cited by Reuters.

Kpler data showed the seven-day moving average for crude exports from the region stood at 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, with volumes exceeding levels before the start of the Iran war in late February for 14 days last month.

The figures appeared to bolster hopes that crude flows have been managing to make their way out of the Gulf, despite the near-constant threat of attacks on tankers and other commercial vessels.

Iran moved to all but shutter the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of the war, cutting off a vital waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the fighting began. The conflict has since expanded into other parts of the Gulf, including to Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi militants and Saudi-aligned government forces are grappling for control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another critical shipping conduit.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge suggested that while the volume of oil exiting the Middle East is "fairly healthy considering all the turmoil," the cost of taking a barrel of crude through Hormuz is "substantially higher than before the war." As a result, prices paid by end customers will stay elevated for the foreseeable future, they added.

Benchmark Brent crude futures were last trading lower by 0.8% at $99.53 a barrel.

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3. Constellation Brands earnings ahead

On a relatively quiet earnings calendar, Constellation Brands is slated to report after the closing bell.

Constellation, whose brands include beers like Corona and Modelo Especial lager, is tipped to post comparable operating profit of $872.3 million on comparable net sales of $2.53 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.

In June, the company notched better-than-estimated fiscal first-quarter profit and reiterated its fiscal 2027 adjusted profit per share outlook of $11.20 to $11.90. Analysts said that the FIFA World Cup soccer tournament and a moderation in oil prices at the time helped to boost demand.

Although the wider alcohol market in the U.S. remains under pressure, partly because of continued uncertainty around inflation, brewers have been moving to slash their prices and focus their marketing campaigns to prop up sales.

Elsewhere, a new batch of U.S. trade figures for August will be unveiled on Tuesday.

In July, the U.S. trade deficit widened due to solid import demand, putting trade in a position to weigh down on wider economic growth in the third quarter. Data from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau showed that the trade shortfall rose by 24.4% to $88.6 billion in July.

Imports, in particular, increased 2.8% to $399.3 billion. Domestic demand has been boosted in recent months by resilient customer spending, as well as a boom in expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

5. DeepSeek set to raise at least $12 bln in Tencent, CATL-led round - Bloomberg

Chinese artificial intelligence group DeepSeek is set to raise at least 80 billion yuan ($12 billion) in a funding round backed by Tencent and CATL, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday.

The company had initially sought 50 billion yuan, but investor demand was far bigger than initially expected, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The final tally could rise as high as 100 billion yuan, Bloomberg reported.

DeepSeek, which shot to fame with its R1 open-source AI model in 2025, is regarded as one of China's most advanced AI labs. Earlier reports had placed DeepSeek's valuation at about $74 billion. Investors are also closely watching the AI startup's plans to seek a public listing.

(Reuters contributed reporting)

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