This Year’s Worst S&P 500 Stock Just Got a Huge Reprieve

AppLovin beat on every line and guided higher, yet its stock has crushed investors after earnings before. Two specific markers will show whether this after-hours surge becomes a real turnaround or another post-report reversal.

Building a portfolio and living off one are two completely different skills, and almost nobody teaches the second. This problem is what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps, and it is free today. Read more here. (Sponsor)

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

AppLovin (NASDAQ:APP | APP Price Prediction), this year’s worst S&P 500 stock through Wednesday’s close, reported third-quarter results after the bell on November 4, 2026, that beat estimates. At 7:59 p.m. ET, shares traded at $333.80, up 22.83% after hours. That followed a 10.69% regular-session rise to $271.75.

After-hours trading is thin, and that price is not a close. If it held, the year-to-date loss would narrow to about 50.5% from 59.67%. That would put AppLovin ahead of Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO), which was down 58.53% for the year and fell another 6.57% after hours.

Recent Earnings Losers And Why Investors Want Them

Revenue reached $2.185 billion, up 55% from $1.405 billion a year earlier and above the $2.07 billion consensus. Earnings per share of $4.30 beat the $4.03 estimate, although that GAAP figure includes $86.032 million of other income.

Net income rose 72% to $1.439 billion. Adjusted EBITDA, a profit measure that strips out interest, taxes, depreciation and stock pay, grew 59% to $1.842 billion at an 84% margin.

CFO Matt Stumpf said the largest digital ad platforms grew roughly 10% to the mid-20%s. He added that about 65% of revenue became free cash flow, which totaled $1.418 billion.

Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $2.365 billion to $2.395 billion came in above the $2.25 billion consensus. Management also guided adjusted EBITDA to $1.995 billion to $2.025 billion, with margins of 84% to 85%. Stumpf said that means growth of about 43% to 44%.

CEO Adam Foroughi credited a partial launch of next-generation ad models and would not commit to a timetable for completing it. He said he believes the business can compound at roughly 30% a year over the long term, which is his belief and not company guidance.

AppLovin bought back and withheld 4.1 million shares for $1.4 billion in the quarter. That works out to about $341 per share on average, which is more than the after-hours price. Stumpf said management stepped up purchases because it saw a gap between the stock price and the company’s intrinsic value.

The board added $3.2 billion, which brings the authorization to $3.6 billion. The $90 average Stumpf cited covers all 104 million shares bought for $9.4 billion since the program began, so it says nothing about how recent purchases have performed.

The stock’s worst days of 2026 came right after its own reports. It fell 19.68% to $366.91 on February 12, because a beat did not ease valuation concerns. It then fell 19.66% to $335.67 on August 6 after sales missed estimates.

Reported pressures included a 16.12% drop on February 4 after the startup CloudX made its AI agent tool for mobile game ads generally available. Short-seller reports and an SEC investigation into data collection, as it was described in February, were also cited. On October 30, the stock fell 10.4% to $228.50 with no company news. The after-hours price stands about 46% above that low but remains about 54.5% below the $733.60 peak close of December 22, 2025.

After the August miss, the question was whether growth could hold up. Guidance for about 43% to 44% growth with steady margins answers that question better than a single quarter’s beat would.

AI-native rivals and data-collection questions remain risks, and the stock has turned after reports before. Two markers will test whether the rebound holds: a regular-session close on November 5 below $271.75 would mean the after-hours gain did not hold. Fourth-quarter revenue below $2.365 billion would weaken the argument that growth is holding up.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.

One stock is soaring more than 30% while the rest of tech sinks, yet the funds that millions of retirement savers rely on barely feel it. Why do three different ETFs leave investors so…

Investors are watching AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP | APP Price Prediction) ahead of Q1 2026 results due today after the close. After a brutal year-to-date drawdown and a sharp April rebound, this quarter’s results will…

AppLovin entered earnings down roughly 60% for the year, with a missed quarter still fresh and a surprise 10.7% rally already in the books. The numbers, a buyback twist, and one margin figure shaped…

One ad-tech name erupted after earnings while another barely moved, and the split says plenty about who wins the next phase of digital advertising. Discover why AppLovin's AI rollout is only half finished and…

Shares of $127.6 billion Applovin (NASDAQ: APP | APP Price Prediction) are up more than 8% or $28.63 on the day.Momentum stocks like Applovin are mostly surging higher and short positions are covered and…

Shares of The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD | TTD Price Prediction) are down roughly 13% to $20.41 in early Friday trading after the company posted a Q1 2026 earnings miss and issued a softer Q2…

AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP | APP Price Prediction) stock is trading at about $440 while the average analyst price target sits at $648.57, implying over 47% upside from current levels. The disconnect is striking given…

A second-quarter stumble wiped out more than half of AppLovin's value, yet analysts keep their Buy ratings even as they slash targets. One cheap forward multiple and a buyback surge raise the question of…

AppLovin just posted its first gain after nine straight losing sessions, but three separate problems dragged the stock down nearly 19% in under two weeks, and not all of them are solved yet.